Since the story broke earlier this week about Disney pulling their content from Netflix to start their own streaming service it’s been a story that I’ve kept an eye on with extreme interest. What plans does Disney have? Will they be introducing a streaming service for just their “Disney” content or are they planning something bigger? Will they want to include their franchises (Marvel and Star Wars) on the same streaming service or will they want to launch an entirely separate service for those? If they go with the latter, will anyone actually want to subscribe to potentially three different Disney services (considering they’re planning their own sports one as well)? How much thought have Disney actually put into this, and how much money are they willing to invest to make it work? How quickly can they make it international, or will they be looking at only one or two markets while using existing services (Netflix, Amazon) to reach the international markets? There are so many questions that need to be asked and so few answers that have been given so far. So, while asking these questions I decided to write “Ten Reasons Why” this announcement by Disney is either the most exciting news we’ve had in a long time, or the worst.
The Potential Is Huge
The first is a pro for Disney doing their own service(s), and that’s that the potential they have for both content and a service that could actually surpass Netflix is huge!
Disney wouldn’t do something like this if they didn’t think they could make it work. They’ve made their deals with Netflix previously and I don’t believe that they just woke up one morning and put together a half-baked plan and decided to announce it. I think if they’ve decided to go in on a streaming service then they’re likely to go all in, and with a company as diverse and with as much experience as Disney have then having their own service could be fantastic for all of us. Of course it all depends on how they go about it, but nobody can deny the potential. Disney has maintained “The Disney Channel” for kids for a long time, right? They produced their own content for that, from shows featuring young actors and actresses who would go on to become megastars to animated shows that have reached multiple generations of kids over the years. Their acquisition of Marvel only helped improve that. This means that, in theory, they have a massive back catalogue of shows they can make available for streaming from day one, not only to provide content for their new service but also to introduce a new generation to some of their classic shows they don’t have time slots for on TV anymore. Just the thought of going back to watch them, or introducing your children to such content, has to be something appealing to so many.
Not only that but we know that streaming media has changed the way we consume content, and Disney would then have a chance to tap into that market AS WELL AS their television markets. This could mean, rather than their television shows which still follow very traditional American formats of 22/23 hour-long episodes and 24/25 half hour long episodes, they could begin to create shorter seasons, potentially doing multiple seasons per year as well. To me that idea is hugely exciting, and if they want subscribers to both flock to them and (just as importantly) stay with them then they’ll need to consistently give us content that we want to pay for. They’ll know that from day one, so as we move down this route with finding out more and more about their plans then we’re likely to hear how they’re planning to keep their viewership. They surely can’t think that if they throw up a few of their classic movies onto a streaming service people will pay money every month to watch the same content after all, which (hopefully) means that the ability to stream their classic movies will be just a bonus on top of what else they’ve got planned.
They Could Supply Package Deals
The scariest rumours I’ve read about this idea is the fact that Disney might not put all their content under one banner but attempt to launch multiple different streaming services for each type of content.
This could well be the case, after all we already know they’re planning a sports one, if they make a “Disney” service with just their Disney-brand movies and television shows and then attempt to do a third one for their Marvel/LucasFilm then will anyone want to subscribe to multiple different services? I’m going to guess no. People already have their choice of content providers – Netflix and Amazon being the biggest two right now – and for people hooked on their content then with Warner Bros/DC launching their own streaming service as well, just how much money do they think we’re going to have to spend every month for their services? The average family, with a younger child and a teenager, who want both kids content AND more adult content – not to mention dad wanting to watch the sports – aren’t going to be happy with their kids demanding separate services when they can get both through Netflix right now, are they? So there’s going to be a problem with consumers refusing to pay out too much a month… unless Disney knows that already?
It’s very rare that television channels make you pay separately for their service. It’s rare in the US and it’s even rarer in the UK. I can see this being an issue for Disney as well, and what I hope is that they already know this. If they’re going to launch their own a different streaming service for each market then I highly doubt they’re going to use completely separate physical services for this. It would cost them an absolute fortune. What they’re more likely to do is provide one platform with different subscriptions, thus allowing us as consumers to pick what we want the most. If you only want sports, ESPN is what you’ll sub to. If you only want Disney, you’ll sub to that content. But if you want all their content, will they provide you with a package deal? I can seriously imagine a deal where they tell you that you can get their sports package for $7.99, their Disney package for $7.99, their Marvel/LucasFilm package for $7.99, or all three together for $15.99. If that’s the case then they could get a MASSIVE section of the market, whose households include viewers who want each of the different subscriptions, flocking to them to provide a ton of different content types. That way they actually could outdo other providers who only have one content type, after all if you’re trying to keep the family entertained are you going to go with Amazon who can give you movies/TV shows, or are you going to go with Disney to give you movies, TV shows and sports?
How Much Will They Rely On Television?
The first one that’s less encouraging for me is the thought that they might still be pushing their television shows over the streaming service.
We all know that Hollywood is seriously behind the times. That’s why piracy is such an abundant thing, because the old men who run these major studios can’t understand the way that their ever-more-technically-savvy audiences want to view their content. This announcement has the potential to change that. This announcement as the potential for Disney to simultaneously offer streaming services and television services by putting their content out on both simultaneously and then giving their audience the chance to catch up on demand with anything they missed. The question is… will they do that? If they’re stuck in the old way of thinking still, will they think that they can make more money by putting out their shows on television first and not offering them on the subscription services for days, weeks, or even months after? This is the way that it’s traditionally worked after all, right? Netflix doesn’t show the latest television shows until after the season has finished on TV, but then that’s because the actual studio producing the show can still get money from it while the current season is airing, and they only let it out to services like Amazon and Netflix after the season is ended and it’s about to get put on Blu-ray and DVD. So, is this Disney’s plan?
If that is what they’re thinking – that they’ll give us access to their content only after they’re done with the traditional television cycle – then I can’t see this service being a big hit. Why would the average consumer want to pay money to watch something that they saw on TV six months ago? Sure, you’ll get a small section that still want to, but for most it won’t be anything that enticing. That’ll mean the streaming service will need to provide as much content as the television shows in order to get people to invest their time and money watching both. Can even Disney pull that off? I’m not sure they can. What they’re likely to have far more success with is if they provide both simultaneously, or worst-case provide the content on the streaming service as soon as the television show finishes, giving people the option of watching it the next morning if they missed it on TV. To me, as a younger person who consumes so much of her content via streaming/download services, that seems like a no-brainer, but to the older studio executives who still don’t understand that families don’t want to spend out $60 taking the kids to the cinema every week when they can acquire the same movies online (albeit in far less quality) can we trust that they’ll understand the way people want to watch?
How Much Do Disney Care About Their Brand?
This is another area of concern for me, considering Disney care about being a family-friendly brand and have invested a lot in that reputation over the years. But do the audience only want family-friendly content from their streaming service?
When I think about family-friendly content and Disney my mind immediately goes to the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and the massive difference between the movies and the Netflix series’. On one hand we’ve got the movies, full of family fun, comedic moments, action and adventure that children and adults alike can embrace. On the other hand we’ve got the Netflix series’ which are gritty, dark, and most of which I wouldn’t let any child under 15 go anywhere near. That’s one of the greatest strengths of the way they’ve done the MCU so far though. There’s an element of it for everyone. Now personally I’m hoping that Disney/Marvel embrace the darker side of their content for future movies, but I can see why they wouldn’t after the whole “uproar” about Logan being an adult movie and parents whining that their kids can’t watch it. Honestly, parents, you don’t want your young kids watching that film. It was NOT made with them in mind! As such, I’m hoping that Marvel target the older market with more adult-themed movies in phase 4. However, this contrast between areas of the Marvel Cinematic Universe does make me wonder if Disney will want to provide the same contrast in their own content on a streaming service? Will they want to only provide content aimed at the whole family, or will they want to expand on their brand to aim content at adults as well?
When I think about the streaming services all I can think about is edgier, more adult content. That’s how Netflix and Amazon have amassed the subscribers they have, right? They provide us with content that traditionally we’ve not been able to get on TV, and they’re more willing to take risks with their content because they need to in order to tap into new markets, and then keep those new subscribers subscribing. Can Disney do the same thing? Can they offer us quality, darker content? It could be a serious chance for them to reinvent their brand to have a side of it which appeals to “children of all ages” (of which I am definitely one) but also to the teenage/adult audience who are looking for something they don’t normally get on TV. Of course that may mean a serious investment in separating out their content with age restrictions etc. on their service (something with the WWE Network has failed miserably with in the past) but if they’ve got it in them to do it then they could change the way people see Disney for the better. Do they have it in them though, or are they completely happy with their branding being as it is?
Will They Produce Original Movies?
Movies are a huge part of the Disney experience. So much of their Disney Channel library relied on their movies to start off with. But will they produce original movies for the streaming service?
This is both something to get truly excited about while also being something to be nervous about and wary of. It’s something to be excited about because with the ridiculous amount of subsidiaries that Disney have acquired over the years – not least of all Pixar – they could produce some incredible original movies for this service. Plus, with Disney on this current run of remaking all their classic animated movies as live action movies, then a streaming service could provide us with a fantastic way to view these movies. I’m not talking about after their run in theatres either. I mean they could make these movies specifically for the service. Parents would love that as it would mean for one small price they could treat their kids to the latest movie at home, rather than that aforementioned cinema experience cost, and it would guarantee Disney got subscribers. Plus, with a platform like this and so many different companies Disney work with/have bought then it could mean we could get a new feature-worthy film a month, keeping the interest in the service all year long. If they debut the films here before their Blu-ray/DVD release as well that would only give more reasons to enjoy this kind of service.
The problem is, of course, whether or not that would happen. Traditionally Disney has pushed out the best movies to the cinemas and then their sequels and “straight-to-video” movies have been… let’s say “not as good” to be nice. If this is how they intend to use a streaming service, with half-baked and poorly written sequels to hit movies, then while there will be an interest in the product from kids (the same as the aforementioned straight-to-video/straight-to-DVD releases) they’ll never really give a strong reason for a wider audience to buy their service, especially over a service like Netflix which IS currently producing a spree of original movies. While I’m not saying this means that Disney should target this service over the cinema, since there will still be a place for the major cinema releases in the post-streaming-service world, it does mean that they’ll need to invest time and money in proper quality content and not just knock out the cheap sequels, as that’s a tactic that people will very quickly see through.
How Long Until Movies Hit Their Service?
The next big question is will they keep with the traditional model for cinema releases, a gap, then streaming service and Blu-ray/DVD releases, or will they go for a new model?
Once again this is not just about getting interest in the service but also about keeping a subscriber base. The more subscribers they have the more money they make, thus the more they’re likely to invest in future content. To achieve that they have the chance to give subscribers something that will excite us all into giving them our money and what could be better than breaking the established pattern? I have no doubt that Disney make good money off Blu-ray and DVD sales. I’d hope they’d continue that in a post-streaming-service world due to families still wanting to own a copy for the future. Plus, I’d hope that if they gave a bunch of worthwhile “extras” they could still entice people into buying the Blu-ray, even if they also had the streaming service. That way, in theory, they could have their cake and eat it too, even if their Blu-ray sales do still take a hit. What we have to hope, however, is that these sales don’t matter so much to them that they have a staggered delay from cinema to Blu-ray/DVD release to finally on the streaming service, or that won’t be great for anyone.
As a consumer, would you buy a service knowing that the “new release” is over a year old by the time it finally gets to the streaming service? In the UK we have Sky Movies and they’re always telling us about their “premieres” which, by the time they finally reach Sky Movies, having gone through the cinema, then Blu-ray/DVD/digital-on-demand, are well over a year old by the time Sky are telling us we can watch the “latest” films. By that point we’ve either already seen the movie from some other source or it’s so far behind that, for the most part, we don’t care anymore. Most people I know don’t even subscribe to the Sky Movies service specifically because this delay is so insane it’s not worth paying for. If Disney thought they could do this with movie releases then I don’t see people paying good money to subscribe for something their kids already have on Blu-ray six months earlier. What would be the point? They need to release them for streaming on this service at the same time as the Blu-ray releases or, better yet, before! If they started releasing to cinemas and then just a few weeks later made the releases available on the service then they’d get people flocking in their numbers to the service, and better yet they’d also massively cut down on the people pirating their movies, so they’d kill two birds with one stone.
What Will Netflix Do?
Another reason to be concerned about this whole thing is what it’ll do to Netflix, specifically in terms of the deals Netflix currently have with Disney.
Personally I don’t think Netflix will have any major problems. They have such an array of content from other sources that Disney removing theirs will likely make a dent, and Disney trying to compete will undoubtedly create some interesting competition, but I don’t think it’ll be the death of Netflix. What I’m worried about is what it’ll do to the Disney-owned Netflix properties. Daredevil, Jessica Jones, Luke Cage, Iron Fist, Defenders and Punisher are all properties owned by Marvel and made in partnership with Netflix. What’ll happen to these? Disney doesn’t own them outright, do they? They were made WITH Netflix. So if Disney pulls their content, what happens to these shows? Not just for the future – I’d assume that Marvel will make them themselves via Marvel Studios or with someone else and different show-runners/creators, if those people are contracted to Netflix instead of Marvel – but for the existing content as well. What’ll happen to the existing shows? Can Netflix still show them if Disney pull their content? Can Disney show them on a future streaming service if Netflix paid to help make them? What happens to shows when two different companies own part each?
It may be worth buying these on Blu-ray in the near future just in case the worst happens and neither side can agree on what’ll happen to them, otherwise we may not get the chance to go back and watch them again (and Jessica Jones is so worth watching a second, third or even fourth time). With the future of these shows in the balance – not to mention future seasons – one has to wonder if this could get as messy as the Marvel/Fox, Marvel/Sony and Marvel/Universal problems. We can’t get a Hulk solo movie because of the Marvel/Universal issues. We all know the issues that the Marvel/Fox problems have caused, most annoyingly with the Fantastic Four. And sure, Marvel and Sony have come to an arrangement over Spider-Man but will that last forever? Are we going to look back in ten years and talk about the Marvel/Netflix issues the same way we do about these issues? It’s definitely a problem worth considering, even if Netflix moves on and creates their own cinematic universe using the newly acquired Millarworld comics. The only major worry to have is with debts already reportedly at $20bn, can Netflix afford to compete on a long-term basis with a Disney streaming service if Disney really goes for it?
Can They Get The Necessary Creators?
As much as we’d like to think that Disney will push original content, stream their existing content alongside their TV network, and push out movies to the service quicker than Blu-ray… can they actually contract the creators, showrunners and actors they’d need to make the service a success?
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Disney doesn’t have a problem getting the big names to appear in the movies. They have Oprah Winfrey voicing a character in an upcoming movie after all. But there are only so many great show-creators out there in the world and with Amazon and Netflix pushing to recruit the best ones to create their content, and studios still wanting to get others to make new and exciting TV shows, can Disney get the top creators to make the best new shows for their streaming service? They’ll need them if they want to generate serious interest beyond just showing the same content they already show, especially if they want a separate Marvel/LucasFilm service to the standard Disney one. They’ll need two sets of creators (or the same creators doing content for both, meaning double the workload or half the commitment to each), and two sets of show runners, and two sets of producers, and two sets of… well, you get the idea! Plus, they’ll need a whole host of new actors to fill the roles on the new shows. Admittedly big name stars are coming more and more to TV and streaming services now, but there’s only so many big-name stars to go around, isn’t there? And traditionally Disney tends to be best known for their younger stars, rather than creating new adult stars. They’ll need to change that.
DC and Marvel recently had a bit of a war over signing comic book writers and artists to “exclusive” deals, which pretty much just ruled out the possibility of them working for the other side. I can see there being a similar war in the future with streaming services, where creators are forced to pick between Disney and Netflix – for example – and it makes me wonder who’ll win. If Disney care too much about their branding and aren’t willing to take the same risks as Netflix is then will the more adventurous creators want to work with them? If Disney wants to be more hands-on than Netflix is will the more adventurous creators want to put up with Disney changing their ideas? They already drove one director away from a Marvel Studios project due to their oversight on his work. The way they pay their creators has also had Joss Whedon upset at them in the past, claiming he only really made money on Avengers: Age of Ultron and wasn’t at all amused that Avengers made the money it did and none of it found its way to him. Will this be a problem for a Disney streaming service? If they get a huge hit and they don’t reward the creators then how long will the creators stick around?
How Will It Affect International Deals?
Being a Netflix subscriber from the UK, who talks regularly with another Netflix subscriber from the UK, there’s one topic that comes up a lot: the US version has so many more options than the UK!
We know the reason why, and that can be stated in one word: Sky. Sky TV is the biggest company in the UK, they’ve been going a long time and they have deals with most of the US networks to show content. That means that most of the biggest US shows end up on one of the Sky channels. It means that anything from HBO ends up on a Sky channel. It means that a lot of the biggest movies end up on Sky’s On Demand service instead of Netflix. It means that Sky Box Sets provides many of the old TV shows that are on the US version of Netflix. This means that the UK version of Netflix has a LOT less content than the US version, and this is very annoying. When it comes to Disney, the Disney Channel and Disney XD are both shown on dedicated Sky channels as well. So, if Sky and Disney have these arrangements, what’ll happen when Disney want to stream their content to UK customers? Will their pre-existing deals with Sky stop them from being able to deliver to UK customers the old TV shows? Will their pre-existing deals with Sky mean that they can’t stream the movies to UK customers? What about other international markets? Again I think of the problems the WWE Network had when going international, and the fact that they had to pull “Main Event” from the network due to the fact that they had international deals they couldn’t get out of. Will this happen for Disney as well?
Something like this could kill the Disney streaming service internationally. If they launch with a hugely reduced amount of content for international subscribers then those subscribers aren’t likely to stick around for long. When you consider the amount of money Netflix makes internationally – and the sheer amount of content, like manga, they have and produce for the international markets as a result – then Disney would really shoot themselves in the foot by not getting their licensing in order before a launch, or really upset potential subscribers worldwide by saying that it’s “not available” in their markets. Again this is all down to their business models and the understanding that the executives have over the way people consume content, yet it’s something I hope Disney have thought about as if they get it right then it could be Disney that the UK needs to break the monopoly that Sky have. If Disney push out their streaming service and pull their content from UK suppliers then maybe it’ll encourage others to follow suit, it’ll encourage others to flock to Netflix rather than Sky, and we’ll get a revolution in the way that content is made available around the world. If there was ever a reason to be excited then it’s that. If there’s ever a reason to be fearful then it’s Disney wanting to charge international subscribers the same money for a tiny fraction of the content.
How Much Will It Cost?
Money makes the world go around, and what it’ll cost to subscribe, what plans they’ll have available for subscriptions, and whether they’ll offer the aforementioned package deals are all big things to think about. Plus, what it’ll cost Disney themselves is another major factor.
Let’s talk about what it’ll cost Disney. They have money to burn at the moment, we already know that: look at what they paid to acquire LucasFilm and Marvel. They undoubtedly have the money to make the single greatest streaming service we’ve seen so far. But do they want to truly invest in it? Initially it’ll lose money, there’s no doubt about that. Every streaming service that’s started up has started losing money. Disney tends to like making money. Are they willing to put in the huge investment they’ll need to look to the future? What’s more, with no money coming in from deals with Netflix and the like, and (hopefully) no deals coming in from international distributors for their shows and movies if they’re planning on going international with this, then they’ll have to suffer quite a few punches before they can get off the ground. Will they do that? If they do then, as already mentioned, they could change the way the company’s content is consumed, they could expand their market base even more, and they could break international monopolies that others have built up. Would they take that kind of risk though?
Then there are the subscription costs: what sort of money do they think their content is worth? If they’re doing an ESPN streaming service, a Disney streaming service and a Marvel/LucasFilm streaming service all separately, how much do they think people will pay? If they offer a package deal for all three, how much do they think they can get for that? Will they offer content the way Amazon does, with options for subscribers and other options of paid content for subscribers and non-subscribers alike, or will they go with the model that Netflix use which is to take one payment and give you everything they’ve got for that one price? Whatever route they go down will affect how the product is received and how many people flock to it, so they need to get it right. The best option could be to offer a Netflix style price for everything and then give the option of getting the newer stuff on demand for a “rental” price, or to offer a “weekend pass” price to just watch for a short time. This would cover the most bases, but again it all comes down to what they expect us to pay. If they price themselves out of the market then they’re doomed to fail.
Should We Be Excited?
So, what do you think? Is there more reason to be excited or fearful? Are Disney going to give us a service we all flock to in our masses, or are they going to try to screw over the “little guy” (in this case Netflix) and end up failing miserably? There’s no doubt in my mind that if they do this right they could give us the best service available, with the most exciting original content, options to watch the latest TV shows live or the following day, and the latest and greatest movies available to subscribers before they’re even on sale on Blu-ray. If they push for exciting, edgy and risk-taking content then they could draw people away from television networks and streaming services alike and become the biggest name in movies and TV around the world. If they recruit the best directors, producers and actors they could create content the world will be talking about. Or they could fail horribly by undervaluing the international markets, assuming people will pay just because they’re Disney, and follow the same patterns that already exist because they’re safe and established. They certainly have the power and money to make things great… but will they?